Bibliographie et Sources

Note méthodologique

Les essais prospectifs de cette section s'appuient sur une analyse des signaux forts et faibles identifiés dans les rapports d'experts, les publications académiques, les projections industrielles et les déclarations publiques des acteurs majeurs de l'IA. Les recherches documentaires ont été conduites à l'aide de l'outil Perplexity AI en décembre 2025.. La nature prospective de ces textes implique un niveau d'incertitude croissant avec l'éloignement de l'horizon temporel.

I. Intelligence artificielle générale et superintelligence

Sources primaires des leaders technologiques

ALTMAN, Sam. « Reflections ». Blog personnel, janvier 2025.

[https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections](https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections)

AMODEI, Dario. « Machines of Loving Grace ». Essay, 2024.

[https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-grace](https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-grace)

BENGIO, Yoshua. « Reasoning Through Arguments Against Taking AI Safety Seriously ». Blog personnel, 9 juillet 2024.

[https://yoshuabengio.org/2024/07/09/reasoning-through-arguments-against-taking-ai-safety-seriously/](https://yoshuabengio.org/2024/07/09/reasoning-through-arguments-against-taking-ai-safety-seriously/)

« Planning for AGI and Beyond ». OpenAI, 2024.

[https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/)

Analyses et sondages d'experts

« When Do Experts Expect AGI to Arrive? ». 80,000 Hours, mars 2025.

[https://80000hours.org/2025/03/when-do-experts-expect-agi-to-arrive/](https://80000hours.org/2025/03/when-do-experts-expect-agi-to-arrive/)

« What's Up With Anthropic Predicting AGI by Early 2027? ». LessWrong.

[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gabPgK9e83QrmcvbK/what-s-up-with-anthropic-predicting-agi-by-early-2027-1](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gabPgK9e83QrmcvbK/what-s-up-with-anthropic-predicting-agi-by-early-2027-1)

« AI Timeline ». The AI Digest.

[https://theaidigest.org/timeline](https://theaidigest.org/timeline)

Encyclopédies en ligne

« Artificial general intelligence ». Wikipedia.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence)

« Superintelligence ». Wikipedia.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence)

II. Risques existentiels et sécurité de l'IA

Ressources institutionnelles

Center for AI Safety

[https://safe.ai](https://safe.ai)

Future of Humanity Institute (fermé en 2024)

[https://www.futureofhumanityinstitute.org](https://www.futureofhumanityinstitute.org)

« Institute That Pioneered AI Existential Risk Research Shuts Down ». 404 Media, 2024.

[https://www.404media.co/institute-that-pioneered-ai-existential-risk-research-shuts-down/](https://www.404media.co/institute-that-pioneered-ai-existential-risk-research-shuts-down/)

Encyclopédies en ligne

« Existential risk from artificial intelligence ». Wikipedia.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence)

III. IA agentique et automatisation

Rapports institutionnels

« The State of AI 2025 ». McKinsey & Company.

[https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai)

« The State of AI 2025: Agents, Innovation ». McKinsey & Company (PDF).

[https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/quantumblack/our%20insights/the%20state%20of%20ai/november%202025/the-state-of-ai-2025-agents-innovation_cmyk-v1.pdf](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/quantumblack/our%20insights/the%20state%20of%20ai/november%202025/the-state-of-ai-2025-agents-innovation_cmyk-v1.pdf)

IV. Régulation et gouvernance de l'IA

Ressources institutionnelles — EU AI Act

EU AI Act — Texte officiel et ressources

[https://artificialintelligenceact.eu](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu)

« Implementation Timeline ». AI Act.

[https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/implementation-timeline/](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/implementation-timeline/)

« Article 99 — Penalties ». AI Act.

[https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/article/99/](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/article/99/)

Analyses comparatives

« AI Regulations in 2025: US, EU, UK, Japan, China and More ». Anecdotes.

[https://www.anecdotes.ai/learn/ai-regulations-in-2025-us-eu-uk-japan-china-and-more](https://www.anecdotes.ai/learn/ai-regulations-in-2025-us-eu-uk-japan-china-and-more)

« Artificial Intelligence ». Congressional Research Service (R48555).

[https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48555](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48555)

Gouvernance internationale

« Why the IAEA Model May Not Be Best for Regulating Artificial Intelligence ». James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

[https://nonproliferation.org/why-the-iaea-model-may-not-be-best-for-regulating-artificial-intelligence/](https://nonproliferation.org/why-the-iaea-model-may-not-be-best-for-regulating-artificial-intelligence/)

V. Transformation du travail et économie post-travail

Rapports institutionnels

« Future of Jobs Report 2025 ». World Economic Forum.

[https://www.weforum.org/](https://www.weforum.org/)

« AI, Jobs, and International Workers' Day ». World Economic Forum, avril 2025.

[https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/04/ai-jobs-international-workers-day/](https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/04/ai-jobs-international-workers-day/)

« AI Jobs Replacement and Data Careers ». World Economic Forum, août 2025.

[https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/08/ai-jobs-replacement-data-careers/](https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/08/ai-jobs-replacement-data-careers/)

« Generative AI and the Future of Work in America ». McKinsey Global Institute.

[https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/generative-ai-and-the-future-of-work-in-america](https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/generative-ai-and-the-future-of-work-in-america)

« Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: What the Future of Work Will Mean for Jobs, Skills, and Wages ». McKinsey Global Institute.

[https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages](https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages)

Articles académiques

« Universal Basic Income and AI ». PMC/NIH, 2025.

[https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11891208/](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11891208/)

VI. Robotique humanoïde

Ressources des entreprises

Tesla AI et Optimus

[https://www.tesla.com/AI](https://www.tesla.com/AI)

Boston Dynamics Atlas

[https://bostondynamics.com/atlas/](https://bostondynamics.com/atlas/)

« Tesla Robot: Everything You Need to Know ». Standard Bots.

[https://standardbots.com/blog/tesla-robot](https://standardbots.com/blog/tesla-robot)

Analyses de marché

« Humanoid Robot Market to Grow at 42.8% CAGR ». BCC Research.

[https://www.bccresearch.com/pressroom/ias/humanoid-robot-market-to-grow-at-428-cagr](https://www.bccresearch.com/pressroom/ias/humanoid-robot-market-to-grow-at-428-cagr)

« The Global Market for Robots Could Reach $38 Billion by 2035 ». Goldman Sachs.

[https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-global-market-for-robots-could-reach-38-billion-by-2035](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-global-market-for-robots-could-reach-38-billion-by-2035)

« Humanoid Robot Market ». Future Market Insights.

[https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/humanoid-robot-market](https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/humanoid-robot-market)

« Future of Humanoid Robotics ». Recorded Future.

[https://www.recordedfuture.com/research/future-humanoid-robotics](https://www.recordedfuture.com/research/future-humanoid-robotics)

VII. Interfaces cerveau-ordinateur

Ressources des entreprises

Neuralink

[https://neuralink.com](https://neuralink.com)

« Synchron Funding: BCI $200M ». MedTech Dive.

[https://www.medtechdive.com/news/synchron-funding-bci-200m/804977/](https://www.medtechdive.com/news/synchron-funding-bci-200m/804977/)

Programmes gouvernementaux

« N3: Next-Generation Nonsurgical Neurotechnology ». DARPA.

[https://www.darpa.mil/research/programs/next-generation-nonsurgical-neurotechnology](https://www.darpa.mil/research/programs/next-generation-nonsurgical-neurotechnology)

« TNT: Targeted Neuroplasticity Training ». DARPA.

[https://www.darpa.mil/research/programs/targeted-neuroplasticity-training](https://www.darpa.mil/research/programs/targeted-neuroplasticity-training)

VIII. Énergie et infrastructure

Analyses environnementales

« AI: Five Charts That Put Data Centre Energy Use and Emissions into Context ». Carbon Brief.

[https://www.carbonbrief.org/ai-five-charts-that-put-data-centre-energy-use-and-emissions-into-context/](https://www.carbonbrief.org/ai-five-charts-that-put-data-centre-energy-use-and-emissions-into-context/)

« Explained: Generative AI's Environmental Impact ». MIT News, janvier 2025.

[https://news.mit.edu/2025/explained-generative-ai-environmental-impact-0117](https://news.mit.edu/2025/explained-generative-ai-environmental-impact-0117)

Investissements nucléaires des géants tech

« Tech Nuclear Energy: Google, Microsoft, Amazon, AI ». Fortune, novembre 2024.

[https://fortune.com/2024/11/21/tech-nuclear-energy-google-microsoft-amazon-ai/](https://fortune.com/2024/11/21/tech-nuclear-energy-google-microsoft-amazon-ai/)

« AI Drives Three Mile Island's Revival ». LCAR Online.

[https://www.lcaronline.com/ai-drives-three-mile-island-s-revival-and-possible-real-estate-surge](https://www.lcaronline.com/ai-drives-three-mile-island-s-revival-and-possible-real-estate-surge)

« Restart Three Mile Island Microsoft ». CBS News Pittsburgh.

[https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/restart-three-mile-island-microsoft/](https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/restart-three-mile-island-microsoft/)

« Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft Go Nuclear ». Trellis.

[https://trellis.net/article/amazon-google-meta-and-microsoft-go-nuclear/](https://trellis.net/article/amazon-google-meta-and-microsoft-go-nuclear/)

IX. Informatique quantique

Roadmaps et analyses

« Quantum Computing Roadmaps: A Look at the Maps and Predictions of Major Quantum Players ». The Quantum Insider, mai 2025.

[https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/05/16/quantum-computing-roadmaps-a-look-at-the-maps-and-predictions-of-major-quantum-players/](https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/05/16/quantum-computing-roadmaps-a-look-at-the-maps-and-predictions-of-major-quantum-players/)

Google Quantum AI Roadmap

[https://quantumai.google/roadmap](https://quantumai.google/roadmap)

X. Souveraineté technologique et semiconducteurs

Taiwan et le « bouclier de silicium »

« Why Taiwan Fears America First Risks Eroding Its Silicon Shield ». Stimson Center, 2025.

[https://www.stimson.org/2025/why-taiwan-fears-america-first-risks-eroding-its-silicon-shield/](https://www.stimson.org/2025/why-taiwan-fears-america-first-risks-eroding-its-silicon-shield/)

« The Limits of Taiwan's Silicon Shield ». Asia Times, octobre 2025.

[https://asiatimes.com/2025/10/the-limits-of-taiwans-silicon-shield/](https://asiatimes.com/2025/10/the-limits-of-taiwans-silicon-shield/)

Chine et semiconducteurs

« China AI Semiconductor Breakthroughs: Strategic Window for Global Investors ». AInvest, janvier 2026.

[https://www.ainvest.com/news/china-ai-semiconductor-breakthroughs-strategic-window-global-investors-2601/](https://www.ainvest.com/news/china-ai-semiconductor-breakthroughs-strategic-window-global-investors-2601/)

« China's Position in the AI Landscape ». ARK Invest.

[https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/chinas-position-in-the-ai-landscape](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/chinas-position-in-the-ai-landscape)

XI. LLM souverains et stratégies nationales

Inde — IndiaAI Mission

« India's Big AI Test Is Here: Making Sovereign Language Models Work ». Fractal/Mint.

[https://fractal.ai/docs/Media/Fractal-Mint-Article-India%E2%80%99s-big-AI-test-is-here-Making-sovereign-language-models-work.pdf](https://fractal.ai/docs/Media/Fractal-Mint-Article-India%E2%80%99s-big-AI-test-is-here-Making-sovereign-language-models-work.pdf)

« India's Pragmatic Path to Large Language Models (LLMs) ». Wadhwani Foundation.

[https://wadhwanifoundation.org/press/indias-pragmatic-path-to-large-language-models-llms/](https://wadhwanifoundation.org/press/indias-pragmatic-path-to-large-language-models-llms/)

XII. Rapports et indices de référence

Stanford HAI

« AI Index Report 2025 ». Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence.

[https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report](https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report)

Anthropic

« Recommended Directions for AI Safety Research 2025 ». Anthropic Alignment.

[https://alignment.anthropic.com/2025/recommended-directions/](https://alignment.anthropic.com/2025/recommended-directions/)

XIII. Exploration spatiale et IA

Ressources institutionnelles

NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

[https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/)

European Space Agency — AI

[https://www.esa.int/](https://www.esa.int/)

XIV. Conscience artificielle et questions philosophiques

Articles de vulgarisation

« The LaMDA Sentience Controversy ». The Washington Post, 2022.

« Can Machines Be Conscious? ». Scientific American.

XV. Transhumanisme et immortalité numérique

Encyclopédies en ligne

« Mind uploading ». Wikipedia.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)

« Transhumanism ». Wikipedia.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism)

« Whole brain emulation ». Wikipedia.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whole_brain_emulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whole_brain_emulation)

XVI. Nouvelles formes sociales et gouvernance

Ressources institutionnelles

« AI and Democratic Deliberation ». Stanford HAI.

« Singapore's Smart Nation Initiative ». Government of Singapore.

Dernière mise à jour : janvier 2026